Side Value VS Money Line

AccuScore

Stephen Oh

AccuScore Analyst

It is not uncommon for AccuScore to have differing teams in their ML and SV picks for a game. However, what do you do in the instances where AccuScore picks Team A on the ML and Team B on the SV, and both teams have strong trends? This is a good question and one that presents itself on the May 15, 2009 Chicago Cubs-Houston Astros game. Here is the game breakdown by the numbers.

The Situation
The Chicago Cubs are the AccuScore ML selection winning 53.5% of simulations. Despite the fact they are laying -158, the Cubs are a strong ML play based on AccuScore seasonal accuracy in this scenario. Here is the case.

On the flips side, The Houston Astros are the SV selection winning 46.5% of sims against the LW% or 39.5% Despite the simulations being very close, the you are getting 1.5x your money by taking the Astros as a live dog. The SV trends are strong in this case as well.

The Dilemma
In MLB, you really could not have better trending accuracy than what you are getting with the Cubs ML selection. However, you are still getting tremendous trending accuracy on Houston as SV selection.

Which is better: Going with Chicago’s “Monster Trends” and laying odds or going with Houston’s “Solid Trends” and taking odds.

The Solution
Ultimately, there is no proven best option for resolving this type of dilemma, but here’s a few thoughts on what one of our analysts thought about this specific case:

I would take the Cubs because AccuScore is -209 in Side Value (and Money Line) picks when Brian Moehler starts for Houston. In 4 starts, AccuScore actually had the Moehler-led Astros winning over 50% of simulations even though they were underdogs in 3 of the 4 games. Houston has lost 3 of the 4 games. In other words, Moehler has been a lot worse in 2009 than AccuScore expected and the stats validate this. He had an ERA of 4.56 in 2008 and 4.07 in 2007. Opposing batters hit around .280 against him. This year his ERA is 8.44 and opposing batters all look like Ted Williams hitting .389!

In this pick, Moehler is again pitching better in simulations than Vegas and anyone who has watched him expects. Given AccuScore’s poor track record with Moehler this year, I’d devalue the Side Value trend and go with the Money Line trend and take the Cubs.