ACCUSCORE SERIES PREVIEW:  CAVALIERS VS MAGIC

Stephen Oh

AccuScore Analyst

Twitter @thejonlee

It may seem that the Cavaliers are destined to make the Finals as the clear-cut best team in the East, but you cannot underestimate the Orlando Magic.  The Magic beat the Cavaliers by double-digits twice this year (both in Orlando) and as they showed in Game 7 vs Boston, when they are hitting three’s they are pretty hard to beat.

Baseline Forecast

The Cavaliers do have everything going for them. They have home court advantage, they are playing their best basketball of the season, and they are well-rested.  These advantages help them win this series nearly 60% of the time.  The Magic are putting up a tough fight because they are winning nearly as many simulations at home (64.7%) as the Cavaliers are winning in Cleveland (68.3%).  There is a very good chance that the Magic will protect home court against Cleveland in this series like they did during the regular season. 

Even though Dwight Howard led the league in rebounding, the Cavaliers are getting the edge on the boards in simulations.  The Cavaliers were third best in the league in rebounding margin, the Magic were 9th.  In games played in Cleveland, the Cavaliers are out-rebounding the Magic by an average of 8 rebounds (+3 offensive boards).  It is closer in Orlando, but Cleveland is still out-rebounding Orlando by 1.5 in Orlando. 

The Cavaliers are the best defensive team in the league and are especially good defending the three.  They held opponents to just 33.3% from three point range this year.  In Game 1 simulations the Magic are shooting 9-25 (36%) from three point range.  There is a 35% chance of the Magic hitting over 40% from three point range.  In simulations where the Magic shot over 40% from three point range they win 45% of the time.  If they can match their Game 7 vs Boston performance and hit 11 three pointers or more they actually have a 50/50 shot of winning Game 1.

STAR PLAYER IMPACT

The four All-Stars in this series, LeBron James, Mo Williams, Dwight Howard and Rashard Lewis obviously will play huge roles.  To evaluate each star’s value we simulated the series without them to see what would happen to their teams.

Not surprisingly, the Cavaliers have no shot without LeBron James.  The Cavaliers go from winning 59.7% of series simulations to a paltry 18% with home field advantage.  While LeBron James is the most valuable player, Mo Williams is providing the clear final piece of the puzzle for the Cavaliers.  Without Williams, the team is actually winning just 45.4% of the series simulations.  The negative impact is 1/3 as much as the LeBron James impact, but it is still the difference between going from solid favorites to slight underdogs.  The fact is, without Mo Williams the Cavaliers are not as good as Orlando.

Even with Dwight Howard, the Magic are losing the battle of the boards to Cleveland.  If Dwight Howard were not playing they would get demolished on the boards. The Cavaliers field goal percentage would also go up significantly.  LeBron James will likely get plenty of layups and dunks with Dwight Howard playing.  If Howard were not available, the Magic defense would look more like the Washington Wizards defense and LeBron would probably average over 7 dunks or layups a game.

Rashard Lewis is an efficient scorer and respectable rebounder.  Without Lewis the Magic’s chances drop nearly 17 percentage points.  This is not nearly as much as the -30% you see with Dwight Howard’s absence, but it is still substantial.  The drop-off is not as large with Lewis because the Magic do have players like Mickael Pietrus who could step up offensively in Lewis’s absence.